The nuclear valve market is expected to grow from $3 billion in 2021 to $5.3 billion in 2050.(1) A big driver will be the goal of net zero CO2 emissions. Nuclear power is a route to lower greenhouse gas emissions with the advantage of continuous availability.
By Bob McIlvaine
The International Energy Agency has set up a scenario to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. This includes adding nearly 400 GW of new nuclear capacity in the next 30 years.
McIlvaine has its own scenario which anticipates adding 300 GW of nuclear capacity and a higher reliance on biomass with carbon capture (BECCS).
The McIlvaine scenario would also end up with net zero CO2 in 2050 but with a different combination of fuels. BECCS has twice the CO2 reduction impact of nuclear due to removal of CO2 from the air prior to burning and sequestration. Solar and wind have a smaller impact on a net CO2 reduction basis per GW due to their lower capacity factors.
Rising electricity demand
![Power-Plant-Capacity-Forecasts-to-2050---GW](https://valve-world.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/21/2022/03/Power-Plant-Capacity-Forecasts-to-2050-GW.jpg)
![Power-Plant-Capacity-Forecasts-to-2050---GW](https://valve-world.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/21/2022/03/Power-Plant-Capacity-Forecasts-to-2050-GW.jpg)
Lifetime extension
In France, there are rolling ten-year reviews of reactors. In 2009, the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) approved EDF’s safety case for 40-year operation of its 900 MWe units, based on generic assessment of the 34 reactors. There are plans to take reactor lifetimes out to 60 years, involving substantial expenditure.
Meanwhile, the Russian government is extending the operating lifetimes of most of the country’s reactors from their original 30 years, for 15 years, or for 30 years in the case of the newer VVER-1000 units, with significant upgrades.
Service type
The present market is served by a limited number of suppliers who have been able to meet the industry’s stringent regulatory requirements. One segmentation is by isolation versus control. Another is by valve type. A very important segmentation is by service type. Many valves are in critical service in which case a valve malfunction can result in considerable harm to human and environmental health. Others are in both critical and severe service but included under severe service. Some are in ‘unique service’, meaning these are engineered valves designed to perform under specific conditions. General service valves in the nuclear industry include service valves such as water intakes.
All in all, the market for replacement valves, repair parts and service is far bigger than for new valves. Sales of new valves for new plants represent less than 10 per cent of the total. The other 90 per cent is replacement valves, repair parts and service supplied by the valve manufacturer. Not included are expenditures for condition/remote monitoring and other services. Given the emphasis on life time extension in mature markets, it can be expected that the market share of replacement/repair will only grow.
Premature decommissioning
The possibility of component replacement and license renewals extending the lifetimes of existing plants is very attractive to utilities, especially in view of the public acceptance of difficulties and high project costs involved in constructing replacement nuclear capacity.
On the other hand, economic, regulatory and political considerations have led to the premature closure of some power reactors, particularly in the USA, where reactor numbers have fallen from a high of 110 to 94, as well as in parts of Europe and likely in Japan.
To conclude, the market for nuclear valves is substantial and is growing but at a rate lower than the GDP. However, due to the critical service requirements the potential for relatively high margins is substantial.
(1) Industrial Valves: World Markets – published by the McIlvaine Company.
About this Featured Story
This Featured Story is an article from our Valve World Magazine October 2021 issue. To read other featured stories and many more articles, subscribe to our print magazine.
“Every week we share a new Featured Story with our Valve World community. Join us and let’s share your Featured Story on Valve World online and in print.”